Okay, so it's probably not the San Diego Padres. Or -- and it pains me to say this, since I thought they would be pretty good this season -- the Los Angeles Dodgers, who go through closers like Spinal Tap goes through drummers.

But look at the division's other three clubs.

The Giants are in first place and oh right they're defending WORLD'S CHAMPIONS. They've also been outscored this season, and teams that get outscored don't generally wind up playing important games in October.

The Rockies were, in some quarters, anointed as division titlists a month ago, when they were crushing their competition despite the absence of Ubaldo Jimenez and the struggles of Carlos Gonzalez. Surely (the thinking went) the Rockies would be really good when Jimenez and Gonzalez got on track.

It hasn't happened. The Rockies do have a positive run differential (+17) but they're sitting at 24-24 and nobody's afraid of them anymore.

And while I can't believe I'm even thinking about writing these words, I don't have a real choice ... Maybe it's time to take the Arizona Diamondbacks seriously, if for no other reason that on the 26th of May they're in second place, with a better run differential than the WORLD'S CHAMPION Giants.

Hey, it's late and Wilson Valdez got a W tonight and I should probably sleep it off. You tell me who's going to win this thing. And, as always, Bonus Fun Points for showing your work in the comments ...