Red Sox? Rays? (or Both?)

As you might have heard, the Boston Red Sox and the Tampa Bay Rays both opened the season with six-game losing streaks, which led some observers to give up on one or both teams.

The Red Sox's woes eventually dropped them to 2-10; through 12 games, the Rays were just 4-8.

Then, both clubs started winning, and it seemed that normalcy had returned once again to the American League East.

Today, though? The Sox and Rays seem headed in different directions.

The Rays are now 17-14, just one measly game behind the first-place Yankees. The Red Sox are 14-17, having lost six of their last 10 games. More worrisome, two of their starting pitchers (John Lackey and Clay Buchholz) have looked lost, and Dustin Pedroia -- perhaps still recovering from the injury that cost him a huge chunk of last season -- has just six hits (all singles) in his last 50 at-bats.

So, what say you? If we still assume that one of these teams will take the Wild Card (at least), which one will it be?

(Bonus points for showing your work.)

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