Phillies Vs. Braves: Still Tied Into The 13th Inning

With a runner on first and no one out in the bottom-half of an extra-inning game, what do you do? Fredi Gonzalez bunts. You might do things differently, but Fredi bunts. Jack Wilson got the bunt down, and there was a runner in scoring position with one out.

Brooks Conrad, who has been useful for the Braves in the regular season, but also had a rough postseason with them last year, struck out. With two down, pitcher Justin De Fratus -- called it! -- intentionally walked Michael Bourn to get to Martin Prado, who grounded out to end the inning.

Did the Gonzalez move cost the Braves? In retrospect, it obviously gave away an out they'd like to have back. But isn't that just hindsight?

Probably not. Here's the run matrix. Don't focus on the average-runs-per-inning one. Instead, look at the chance of a team scoring at all with a runner on first with no outs vs. a runner on second and one out.

Runner on first, no outs: 44% chance of scoring
Runner on second, one out: 42% chance of scoring

Seems simple, if close. But don't forget that Jack Wilson was up. Maybe Josh Wilson. One of them. The difference between J. Wilson and Conrad or Prado might make up that difference. It's a close call, but probably not as egregious as you might think. He does sillier things to be angry about.

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