Tim Lincecum's Slipping ... But Still Worth $40 Million

Tim Lincecum deserves every penny of his new $40.5 million contract ... But there's no guarantee that he'll do better next time, as his powers seem to have faded some in recent seasons.

Tim Lincecum, Giants Agree To Two-Year Contract

Not long ago, players and teams hit the deadline to submit filings for arbitration. Tim Lincecum submitted a record request for players with less than six years of service, while the Giants submitted a record offer for players with less than six years of service. It looked like it could be quite the story.

Of course, Lincecum and the Giants aren't actually going to arbitration. Two years ago, Lincecum and the Giants almost went to arbitration before they agreed to a two-year contract. This time around, they didn't wait so long, as another two-year contract is in place. Hank Schulman:

Timmy gets two years, $40.5 million

Recently, the Giants reportedly offered Lincecum $40 million over two years, while Lincecum countered with $44 million over two years. The Giants won that negotiating round, I guess.

So, a two-year contract. This contract buys out Lincecum's remaining years of arbitration eligibility and nothing more, as he's still set to become a free agent after the 2013 season. Long-term contract talks, of course, could continue, or start up at a later date. Lincecum is by no means guaranteed to hit the market.

If you add everything up, Lincecum will have made nearly $70 million by the time this deal is up. That's nearly $70 million before hitting any free agency years. One wonders if that would make hypothetical free agent Lincecum less determined to get the biggest contract possible. One cannot know the answer, so one needn't speculate. For now, Tim Lincecum remains a starter for the San Francisco Giants, and now he won't have to sit in a hearing while a team representative points out his flaws in front of a judge. Not bad.

Tim Lincecum Offered Two-Year Contract By Giants

Recently, Tim Lincecum made a record-high request in arbitration. The Giants made a record-high but lower offer. Those filings, however, did not mean the end of negotiations. The two sides can continue to negotiate, and the two sides have continued to negotiate. How have they negotiated? Let's ask Tim Brown:

Sources: Giants offered Lincecum two-year, $40-million deal. Lincecum reps countered at two and $44 mil. Sounds like they can get it done.

There's also this report, from Jon Heyman:

The Giants are talking to franchise pitchers Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain about multiyear deals, but [...] the team seems to be focusing on deals of two years or one with Lincecum after he rebuffed an offer of at least $100 million for five years.

It makes sense. Lincecum is two years away from becoming a free agent. All along, it's been reported that he wanted either a short contract, or a very long contract. The Giants would feel most comfortable with something in between, an option to which Lincecum evidently isn't open. At least not right now.

If Brown's tweet is true, it stands to reason that Lincecum and the Giants should be able to reach an agreement. If Lincecum and the Giants reach an agreement, they'll avoid arbitration. And if they reach an agreement that's two years in length, then Lincecum will be staring at free agency after the 2013 season, as he has been all along.

Tim Lincecum, Visualized

FanGraphs: What Is Tim Lincecum Worth In Arbitration?

This Tim Lincecum situation is interesting. And it's interesting because it's interesting even though it really shouldn't be interesting. Tim Lincecum is going to pitch for the Giants in 2012. He's going to pitch for the Giants in 2013. This has long been set in stone, barring an injury. All we're dealing with is a matter of salary. Salary is kind of dry. But it's Tim Lincecum, and people love talking and reading about Tim Lincecum, so, here we are. Tim Lincecum's arbitration situation is interesting.

As you've probably heard, Tuesday, Lincecum requested $21.5 million in arbitration, while the Giants offered $17 million. Both represent records for players with less than six years of service time. Over at FanGraphs, our own and their own Wendy Thurm examines how Lincecum might fare were this to advance all the way to a hearing:

The arbitrators must choose a number. There’s no compromise. If it gets that far, my bet is on the Giants’ $17 million offer. It’s more in line with Lincecum’s service-time peers who have outperformed him over the last two seasons. Yes, he won the Cy Young in 2008 and 2009, but he has not kept pace with Halladay, Lee and Sabathia, and shouldn’t be compensated at their level.

That's the conclusion. Click the link to read everything before the conclusion. Odds are this won't get as far as a hearing in the first place, but if it does, well, Wendy's got you (it?) covered.

Where The Tim Lincecum Situation Goes From Here

Tim Lincecum has requested a record amount in arbitration. The Giants have offered a record amount in arbitration. What does this all mean? Where do we go?

Tim Lincecum Makes Record Request In Arbitration

Tim Lincecum is coming up on arbitration, and while the Giants have offered $17 million, Lincecum has requested $21.5 million - the highest request ever for a player in his situation.