The Baseball Writers Association of America will announce the results of their Hall-of-Fame balloting on Monday, and there have been some whispers that this might be the first year since 1996 without a player getting inducted. Is that a possibility?
Probably not. Over at Baseball Think Factory, the indefatigable Repoz has collected the results of 134 different ballots so far, and at his last count, Larkin received a vote on 89.6% of the ballots -- even accounting for sample-size concerns, that total hints that he should be well over the 75% required for election. Jim Bowden is, uh, confident that Larkin will get in:
"I'd be shocked if Barry doesn't get in this year," says Jim Bowden, Larkin's general manager with the Reds. "If he doesn't get in, I'm going to resign from all of my jobs. That's how confident I am."
Maybe he meant re-sign. Those hyphens can really make a difference. And if you're interested in whether or not the ballots released early can act as some sort of statistical indicator of the final balloting, here's the spreadsheet for you. It sure looks like there's some significance to the results of the voluntarily released ballots.
Jack Morris, Jeff Bagwell, and Tim Raines are also creeping closer to 75% with each passing year, and there's an outside shot that they'll get in this time. Lee Smith, Alan Trammell, and Edgar Martinez are on the fringes of the vote, and if any of them get over a simple majority of the votes, it would be a minor upset.
First-time candidate Bernie Williams isn't just failing to get a lot of support -- he's in danger of getting even the 5% required to remain on the ballot next year, which is somewhat surprising for a five-time All Star who won four different World Series with the New York Yankees.
The award will be announced at noon PT/3:00 p.m. ET on the BBWAA's official Twitter account -- @officialBBWAA.