The Mets’ Mike Pelfrey was off to a good start this season, posting a 2.29 ERA in three starts, issuing just four walks in 19 innings, and not allowing a home run.

He had some swelling in his elbow that forced him to the disabled list; a torn ligament was reported on Tuesday, and now, New York Daily News Mets beat writer Andy Martino reports:

Pelfrey says likelihood of tommy John is “99 percent.”

— Andy Martino (@SurfingTheMets) April 26, 2012

Pelfrey is 28. Tommy John surgery generally means 12 to 18 months before a pitcher can get back on a major league mound, so it’s possible Pelfrey won’t be back pitching before 2014. Even then, though, he’d be just 30, so he could still come back and have several productive seasons, assuming the surgery is successful.

For the time being, righthander Chris Schwinden will take over Pelfrey’s spot in the Mets rotation.

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