Baseball Nation: All Posts by Grant Brisbee

Open GameThread, 5/22

2013-05-22T18:30:17Z

Current Series

Giants lead the series 2-0

Mon 05/20	WP: Ryan Vogelsong (2 - 4) LP: Zach Duke (0 - 1)	8 - 0 win
Tue 05/21	WP: Jeremy Affeldt (1 - 0) LP: Yunesky Maya (0 - 1)	4 - 2 win
Washington Nationals Federal Baseball @ San Francisco Giants McCovey Chronicles Wednesday, May 22, 2013, 12:45 PM PDT AT&T Park Gio Gonzalez vs Madison Bumgarner Sunny. Winds blowing out to right field at 10-15 m.p.h. Game time temperature around 60. Complete Coverage >

1. Angel Pagan CF
2. Marco Scutaro 2B
3. Buster Posey C
4. Hunter Pence RF
5. Brett Pill 1B
6. Joaquin Arias 3B
7. Andres Torres LF
8. Brandon Crawford SS
9. Madison Bumgarner LHP

(Belt has a back issue and Pablo is sick. Still, it's probably worth freaking out.)

Current Series

Giants lead the series 2-0

Mon 05/20	WP: Ryan Vogelsong (2 - 4) LP: Zach Duke (0 - 1)	8 - 0 win
Tue 05/21	WP: Jeremy Affeldt (1 - 0) LP: Yunesky Maya (0 - 1)	4 - 2 win
Washington Nationals Federal Baseball @ San Francisco Giants McCovey Chronicles Wednesday, May 22, 2013, 12:45 PM PDT AT&T Park Gio Gonzalez vs Madison Bumgarner Sunny. Winds blowing out to right field at 10-15 m.p.h. Game time temperature around 60. Complete Coverage >

1. Angel Pagan CF
2. Marco Scutaro 2B
3. Buster Posey C
4. Hunter Pence RF
5. Brett Pill 1B
6. Joaquin Arias 3B
7. Andres Torres LF
8. Brandon Crawford SS
9. Madison Bumgarner LHP

(Belt has a back issue and Pablo is sick. Still, it's probably worth freaking out.)

Rafael Soriano is a dingus

2013-05-22T17:33:59Z

Bryce Harper's non-play in right field was interesting enough for a little morning post. And then Rafael Soriano opened his big mouth, and it became absolutely compelling.

First, the play:

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That was a two-strike, two-out triple to tie the game in the ninth; the Giants eventually won in the 10th. Harper admits his collision with a fence last week played a part in his inability to catch the ball. That's a take-one-for-the-team answer from the 20-year-old. When I was 20, I spent my nights trying to crack whippits open with a desk drawer, so anything more than that always impresses me. But I'm not sure if Harper was that close to the play. Here's where he started his leap:

And here's where the ball landed:

Close, and maybe if Harper ran back at a full sprint he would have gotten there. The video will probably tell you more than the screenshots, but it was going to be a tough play no matter how Harper played it. Blanco crushed it.

(An aside on how the Dodgers' season is going: The Dodgers lost the game in which Harper collided with the wall, and it still might have led to a Giants win a week later. It's impressive how many different ways that team can get hosed in the early part of the season. Probably Mattingly's fault.)

For some reason, Rafael Soriano opened his big dingus mouth. This is really, really amazing:

"It may not have been a catch-able ball, but if we're positioned the right way, there might have been a different outcome. With two outs, I could tell my four-year-old son, 'You know where you need to play,' and he would have positioned himself better. It's not an excuse, and I'm not speaking badly about anybody, but I think that's how you play the game.

Here's where Harper was when the cameras cut to the outfield:

Not pictured: Denard Span. Which is important. If Span is shading Blanco to go the other way, perhaps Harper should have been over toward center more. That's sort of a traditional late-inning defense at AT&T Park. Except, here's Gregor Blanco's hit chart:

Blanco doesn't hit a lot of fly balls into the right-center gap. He's not completely punchless, and occasionally he'll get into one, but in the past year, there would have been three or four hits that might have been taken away if the right fielder was playing way, way off the right-field line. With Andres Torres at first and Harper basically playing in center field, those green squares toward the right-field line could have been just as damaging. With Torres's speed, anything that gets to the wall has a chance to score him. Blanco was much more likely to pull a line drive down the line than drive one to the deepest part of the yard.

So Soriano probably shouldn't have opened his yapper. The Nationals were positioned correctly, and the guy who didn't make the play is a star who plays like he's forever in danger of getting released. If he had Tyrannosaurus arms on the play, it's because he literally ran into a fence at full speed last week. Context, man, context. That's how Bump Bailey died, you know. How many pitchers would even think to nitpick that guy?

The biggest problem?

Cool two-strike slider, Rafael Soriano. He'll never look for it there. But by all means, spend your time after the game talking about your four-year-old son's brilliant positioning.

Bryce Harper is beating himself up over something he shouldn't. The Giants had no business winning that game, but most of the blame should be put on Soriano for making a bad pitch at the wrong time. Blanco has serious trouble with back-foot sliders. Thigh-high sliders? Not so much.

And that has nothing to do with running into fences. Soriano will apologize soon. That's how these things work. Of course, these things usually don't happen because pitchers know when to bite their tongues. Of all the times to let loose on a teammate, this was certainly one of the strangest in recent memory.

Marlins or Astros: Who's worse?

2013-05-22T16:09:27Z

Back in the early off-season, when the discerning baseball fan wanted to laugh at a team with dismal prospects, he or she would pick on the Houston Astros. Sure, the organization has hired smart people from all around the baseball universe, and their future seems bright. But in the short term, it looked like the Astros were going to have a tough time. Almost certainly the toughest time in baseball.

Then the Marlins happened.

That led to an open question: Could the Marlins catch up with the Astros? The Marlins shipped off almost every valuable player they had, and their biggest free-agent acquisitions were Juan Pierre and Placido Polanco. Suddenly, they had a roster that could compete with the Astros, by which we mean they couldn't compete, just like the Astros.

If you follow that link, don't pay attention to the part where I gush over the Blue Jays' off-season. I was young, inexperienced.

Both teams are bad, as expected. Amazingly, they might even be worse. Both teams are on pace for 116 losses. I know that on-pace stats can be a little deceptive this early in the season, but that's still a stunning pace. The good news for us, though, is that their starts are so similar that there's still a chance to discuss which team will finish the season with a worse record. C'mon, you jackals! Let's pick over some bones!

There isn't an especially scientific way to do this, but we can at least break the teams into categories to see if we can see any separation between the two. The categories:

Hitting

Here's the thing: Neither one of these teams has any hitters who should hit better. As in, there aren't a lot of unmitigated disasters in either lineup. For example, the Dodgers' Luis Cruz has a -38 OPS+. If he played every day for the rest of the season, he wouldn't finish the season with a -39 OPS+. He probably wouldn't finish with a 39 OPS+, a 59 OPS+, or even a 69 OPS+. He is currently hitting like Matt Garza with an iron deficiency. He's better than that.

The Marlins don't have anyone like that, really. Greg Dobbs currently has a .549 OPS, which is about 100 points lower than his career mark. But he's 34, so this might be the real Greg Dobbs. Adeiny Hechavarria is hitting .207/.254/.369 at short … which isn't that far from what his minor-league stats suggest he would hit. You can play this game up and down the roster. There are bad hitters. But there aren't gawdawful hitters who can aspire to be bad.

When it comes to the players who should be hitting better, the conversation begins and ends with Giancarlo Stanton, whose body is betraying him. Unless you want to argue for Polanco or Pierre as great bets to be as good as they once were. Which you don't.

The same thing applies to the Astros. Like, almost close to the same thing. If anything, the Astros are filled with players who might be overachieving, if just a touch. Ronny Cedeno isn't as good as he's shown, and any time Carlos Peña hits over the Mendoza Line, you have to wonder if it will hold. You might expect Jason Castro to make fewer outs. That's about the end of the expected improvements.

So, go ahead. Pick some Marlins and/or Astros who you think will get better. It's hard. Absent any improvement, then, you'll have to assume the Astros are the better offensive team. They're almost slugging .400, after all. The Marlins have a chance to be one of the worst-hitting teams in recent baseball history. They're hitting .222/.283/.319, and their .601 OPS would be the 10th-worst mark in history. And that means …

Advantage: Astros

Pitching

A partial list of teams with a staff currently performing worse than the Marlins' rotation:

Padres
Giants
Phillies

The Marlins have been quite good, considering. When compared to your typical last-place team, at least. Ricky Nolasco is enjoying his best season since 2008, Kevin Slowey is enjoying his only season since 2010, and Jose Fernandez is a Rookie of the Year candidate. Placeholders Alex Sanabia and Wade LeBlanc haven't been that bad. And the team's cumulative ERA+ is 95 -- 18th in baseball. That's not a historic pace.

Houston's ERA+ is 78, worst in the majors. Their pitching has allowed 5.91 runs per game, easily the most in baseball. Seven pitchers have made a start for them; two have an ERA over 6.00, two have an ERA over 9.00. They have prospects. They don't have a lot of prospects who should help right away.

Advantage: Marlins

Relevant

Giancarlo Stanton is hurt. Jose Altuve isn't. When healthy, Stanton is enough to put the Marlins over the Astros. When healthy.

Advantage: Astros

Likelihood of losing players at the deadline

The Marlins are likely to trade Nolasco and possibly Slowey. It's hard to see another team wanting any of their hitters except Stanton, who seems more like an offseason trade than mid-season.

The Astros will lose Bud Norris? Lucas Harrell? They'll probably get worse at the deadline, don't get me wrong, but it's not like they're the 1993 Padres trading away their only good player.

Advantage: Push

Prospects who could go nuts

Christian Yelich is still lurking for the Marlins, who have a highly regarded farm system. The prize of the Astros' system is Jonathan Singleton, who is serving a suspension for prohibition-related offenses. The former is the better prospect, but the latter is closer to the majors and expected to contribute sooner.

If either team had a high-level pitcher ready to contribute, he would be in the rotation by now. Jarred Cosart is pretty close, though, and he's probably the single prospect on either team who could make a big difference in 2013. He's not exactly setting Triple-A on fire (over a strikeout per inning, but four walks for every nine innings pitched), so he might be a September call-up at best.

Yelich is the best player in either system, he's hitting well, and the Marlins are crazy enough to call him up soon. When he enters his arbitration years in his early-to-mid 20s? That'll be the problem of the team trading for him, right?

Advantage: Marlins

BOLD PREDICTION

The Astros will finish with the worst record. There's no real reason to be supremely confident about this, but the Marlins at least have the pitching. A decent Nolasco and healthy Slowey go a long way. And while that offense should be bad, it's never a good idea to bet on historically bad. If Slowey is healthy, Fernandez remains effective into the summer, and Nolasco's half as good as he was always supposed to be, the Marlins should avoid 115-loss ignominy. They might even avoid 100 losses if Stanton comes back and gets hot.

They probably won't avoid 100 losses. These teams are awful. Awful enough for me to write a column like this and not get attacked in the comments by too many fans of the two teams. Because they know. Oh, man, how they know. I'll take the Astros for now, but if Stanton doesn't come back ... oh, I can't decide. This is like a Sophie's choice, but if both of Sophie's kids wouldn't stop learning how to play banjo in the middle of the night.

Poll

Which team will finish with the worse record in 2013?

Open GameThread, 5/21

2013-05-22T00:22:40Z

Current Series

Giants lead the series 1-0

Mon 05/20	WP: Ryan Vogelsong (2 - 4) LP: Zach Duke (0 - 1)	8 - 0 win
Washington Nationals Federal Baseball @ San Francisco Giants McCovey Chronicles Tuesday, May 21, 2013, 7:15 PM PDT AT&T Park Stephen Strasburg vs Matt Cain Clear. Winds blowing out to right field at 15-20 m.p.h. Game time temperature around 55. Complete Coverage >
Wed 05/22		12:45 PM PDT

Current Series

Giants lead the series 1-0

Mon 05/20	WP: Ryan Vogelsong (2 - 4) LP: Zach Duke (0 - 1)	8 - 0 win
Washington Nationals Federal Baseball @ San Francisco Giants McCovey Chronicles Tuesday, May 21, 2013, 7:15 PM PDT AT&T Park Stephen Strasburg vs Matt Cain Clear. Winds blowing out to right field at 15-20 m.p.h. Game time temperature around 55. Complete Coverage >
Wed 05/22		12:45 PM PDT

Dodgers considering managerial change?

2013-05-21T20:26:34Z

The Los Angeles Dodgers, after winning the division on Opening Day, have fallen on tough times. They're 18-25, and they've lost key contributors to injury. Juan Uribe is outhitting Matt Kemp. Luis Cruz has a -37 OPS+. Nick Punto leads the team in on-base percentage.

This is causing concern in Dodger-land. And it's also causing speculation that manager Don Mattingly might not be around for a long time. From Ken Rosenthal

Watching Sunday’s meltdown on television, I thought, "Mattingly might be gone tomorrow." And then I got a text from a rival scout, one who has no particular insight into the Dodgers, but is attuned — like so many in the sport — to the game’s day-to-day rhythms.

"Making the call — Donnie Ballgame will get the axe tomorrow," the scout said.

When I asked the scout why he thought that, he replied, "Gut feeling. The way they’ve been losing.

Donnie Ballgame did not get the axe. On the contrary, the Dodgers gave him a vote of quasi-confidence on Monday, saying they have "no plans" to fire him. I have no plans to eat a slice of cheesecake in the next week. I might eat a slice of cheesecake in the next week. That's kind of the same definition of "no plans."

Regardless, we have to spring into action. We need to let the Dodgers know just how much we respect Don Mattingly's ability to lead a clubhouse, and how terrified we are of his bear trap of a mind. If they only knew how excited Giants fans would be if Mattingly were fired, why, they would wonder if they're doing the right thing. Maybe they would keep him around. My plan:

Hire people around Los Angeles to follow owners and executives around

The idea: hire people to wear Giants hats and follow Stan Kasten and Magic Johnson around while saying things like …

Boy, I can't believe the Dodgers would be stupid enough to fire Don Mattingly

and

I wasn't sure if the Giants could win the division this year, but now that the Dodgers are going to fire Mattingly … I don't know, they have a shot.

The only problem with this plan is that I'm not sure we could find locals who a) have a lot of free time on their hands and b) feel comfortable pretending to say things as if they were completely different people. That kind of manhunt might be beyond our resources.

Write letters filled with reverse psychology

This one is something we can all do. Just pick up some stationary, a pen, an envelope, and a stamp, and you can help out, too.

Here's a sample. Feel free to reshape this into your own words:

Dear Dodgers,

As a Giants fan, I am absolutely thrilled that you are going to fire Don Mattingly. Because I root for a rival team, I was originally worried that you would keep Don Mattingly around, where he would bond with his ragtag band of superstars and help them forge a unified team identity. This is probably the best news possible.

So, please, go about your business. I just wanted to let you know that you guys are on the right track … if you want to help the Giants?

Sincerely, (Name)

P.S. Why would I tell you this? That was a horrible decision! Forget I wrote anything!

Forge Rob Neyer's name on an article lauding Mattingly's brilliance

I got this one.

Why Don Mattingly is Great
by Rob Neyer
Opening! Interesting historical reference. Recap of Ken Rosenthal's article.

Statistical study with important numbers pointing to something you didn't realize.

Conclusion suggesting the Dodgers are fools if they let Don Mattingly go.

Draft a fake memo on Dodgers letterhead

This one will be the trickiest of all, but it should be effective. A little Photoshop and research should give us something that looks as if it came from Ned Colletti's desk, and it should read like this:

After thorough research, I've concluded that these are the only managerial candidates on the market. Like, this is it. I've looked and looked and looked, but these are the only realistic alternatives to Don Mattingly:

Ozzie Guillen

Jim Tracy

Bobby Valentine

Jose Canseco

Please advise which direction we should turn.

Thanks,

Ned Colletti

Other suggestions are welcome, of course. This is a group effort, and we owe it to the Dodgers to make sure Don Mattingly keeps his job. Haven't the big corporations taken enough jobs from hard-smirking Americans?

Keep Mattingly employed! Keep Mattingly employed! Keep Mattingly employed! Please help. I have an e-mail out to Sarah McLachlan to see if she can shoot something within the week. We can do this, people.

Bryce Harper and Buster Posey

2013-05-21T19:22:21Z

This is Bryce Harper:

This is Buster Posey:

All major credit cards (and PayPal) accepted.

Finding Stephen Strasburg's missing strikeouts

2013-05-21T18:43:22Z

It's the beginning of the season. But it's not quite the beginning beginning. Not everything has to mean something, but some things are starting to have meaning. We're over a quarter of the way through the season, which is juuust about where we can start freaking out over unexpected performances.

Which brings us to Stephen Strasburg. The combination of him a) returning from injury last spring and b) getting shut down last year makes me think of Strasburg as a pitcher returning from injury this season. He's not. He's a healthy pitcher who is especially rested, if anything. But if you're looking for early-season red flags, here you go:

Strikeouts per nine innings:
2012: 11.1
2013: 8.6

Strikeouts per plate appearance
2012: 30.2%
2013: 23.3%

Or, in graph form:

That trend is STRAIGHT DOWN!

After Strasburg sat for the end of the 2012 regular season and the playoffs, he's striking out fewer batters than ever before. This is something that requires some intrepid investigation. A rundown of likely suspects:

Velocity

Min. fastball velocity, 2012: 91.8 m.p.h.
Min. fastball velocity, 2013: 92.0

Avg. fastball velocity, 2012: 95.8 m.p.h.
Avg. fastball velocity, 2013: 95.5

Ah-ha! Wait …

Movement

Horizontal movement on fastball, 2012: -5.02 inches
Horizontal movement on fastball, 2013: -5.54

Vertical movement on fastball, 2012: 9.29 inches
Vertical movement on fastball, 2013: 9.11

Horizontal movement on curveball, 2012: 7.44 inches
Horizontal movement on curveball, 2013: 8.63

Vertical movement on curveball, 2012: -6.25 inches
Vertical movement on curveball, 2013: -7.88

Horizontal movement on change, 2012: -8.64 inches
Horizontal movement on change, 2013: -8.30

Vertical movement on change, 2012: 2.53 inches
Vertical movement on change, 2013: 2.77

Ah-ha! Wait … I dunno, maybe his curve is slurvier? It's not as 12-to-6? By an inch.

No. No, that's probably not it.

Swing percentages

Swing rate on fastball, 2012: 44.9%
Swing rate on fastball, 2013: 48.9

Swing percentage out of the strike zone on fastball, 2012: 63.7%
Swing percentage out of the strike zone on fastball, 2013: 68.9

Swing rate on curveball, 2012: 34.7%
Swing rate on curveball, 2013: 28.7

Swing percentage out of the strike zone on curveball, 2012: 38.4%
Swing percentage out of the strike zone on curveball, 2013: 29.7

Swing rate on change, 2012: 52.7%
Swing rate on change, 2013: 46.8

Swing percentage out of the strike zone on change, 2012: 78.4%
Swing percentage out of the strike zone on change, 2013: 60.0

Ah-ha! Hitters aren't chasing after his curve and change like they did last season! I knew it! It's probably something to do with his release point. No, his mechanics. His inverted W! His spread-legged M! His disinterested Q! There's someth …

Pitches thrown

Curveballs, 2012: 493
Curveballs, 2013: 171

Changeups, 2012: 414
Changeups, 2013: 154

Hitters have swung at 10 fewer curveballs than you would expect based on last year's rate. They've swung at nine fewer changeups. That could mean something. That probably doesn't mean anything. If you're skeptical of a hitter hitting .200 or .400 over 171 at-bats, you should also be skeptical of the swings a pitcher gets over 171 pitches thrown.

A reminder, this is what a supposedly hittable Strasburg looks like:

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He's still almost certainly one of the best pitchers in baseball. Even though his strikeout rate is more Tommy Milone than Pedro Martinez right now, that isn't going to last. We're a quarter into the season. Expect Strasburg to strikeout more hitters over the next three-quarters.

Searching for Vogelsong's replacement

2013-05-21T16:58:53Z

Barry Zito was injured in 2011, you know. You'll read a lot of talk about how the Giants haven't had a hurt pitcher since Trevor Wilson went on the DL with a pulled dimple, but it wasn't that long ago that Zito missed significant time with a foot injury. Of course, his replacement stuck in the rotation, made the All-Star team, and won two games in the NLCS, so everything most certainly worked out for the best, but Zito was injured once upon a time.

Maybe everything will work out that well again!

Probably not. Still, the Giants have to find a replacement for Ryan Vogelsong, who broke his hand on Shane Victorino's sternum. Which is what I tell myself because, good lord, what was that swing, man?

A list of potential replacements, with the pros and cons:

Chad Gaudin
Pro: He's already here. Knows where the break-room fridge is. And he has tons of starting experience, with 75 career starts. He's pretty much the same pitcher regardless of his role.

Con: Bruce Bochy seemed reticent to call Gaudin the frontrunner, mostly because he likes Gaudin's rubber arm in the bullpen. He threw 3.1 innings and 72 pitches in Toronto, and I'm guessing he's the only reliever Bochy would do that with. Plus, I'm still curious about his potential to emerge as a late-inning option.

Michael Kickham
Pro: He's an upper-level pitching prospect, at least as far as the Giants are concerned. This could be a secret audition, too, as the Giants might need to fill three rotation openings next year, and an in-house option taking one of the spots would allow them to spend more on the other guys.

Also, he's on kind of a roll:

Rk	Date	Opp	IP	H	ER	BB	SO	HR
5	2013-04-28	Reno Aces	5.1	11	6	0	7	1
6	2013-05-03	Colorado Springs Sky Sox	7.1	4	0	1	8	0
7	2013-05-08	Nashville Sounds	6.2	6	3	0	7	0
8	2013-05-13	Memphis Redbirds	5.1	6	2	3	2	0
9	2013-05-18	New Orleans Zephyrs	6.1	4	0	2	8	0

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table

Does that list start with the game after he was torched for six runs and 11 hits? Yes. Yes, it does. But he's been striking Triple-A hitters out lately, and that counts for something.

Con: He would be a little wild and unrefined, most likely. Usually when the minor-league pitchers with a BB/9 rate around 4.0 come up, they have a touch of the Jonathan Sanchezes. Kickham is also not on the 40-man roster.

Chris Heston
Pro: Heston is on the 40-man roster, and he had a 2.24 ERA in Double-A last year. He's supposed to be polished, with command of all of his pitches.

Con: PCL hitters have been polishing the pitches to a nice, shiny finish, too, sending them right back up the box all season. He didn't allow an earned run in his last start, but in his other eight starts, he allowed three runs in six of them, five in one, and seven in another. His control and command haven't been as sharp as they were last year.

Shane Loux
Pro: Probably has a uniform already

Con: Quite literally the most boring option. None of these guys are especially great options, but at least some of them are interesting. LOUX is probably an acronym on some sort of French sabermetric site that means "replacement player."

Justin Fitzgerald
Pro: The kids are all talking about The Great Gatsby these days, and Fitzgerald might be a way to "leverage" that kind of "buzz." He also pitched his way out of Richmond with six solid starts, and ~~he's~~ most certainly not on the 40-man roster.

Con: He's 27, with one start above Double-A, and his minor-league record isn't that impressive apart from his fast start this year.

Yusmerio Petit
Pro: Also has a uniform already. Fascinating case study, as he's the only known enemy of strikeout-to-walk ratios found in the wild.

Con: Pretty bad! If you're looking for pitchers with a chance to be good, Petit has had several of those, and none of them have worked. He's also been shelled in Fresno.

Boof Bonser
Pro: I would get 5,391 e-mails and tweets, which would be delightful. And as a replacement for Ryan Vogelsong, there would be a delicious kind of symmetry behind it.

Con: He hasn't been good in Triple-A, and he's recovering from serious injuries. Plus, he's not on the 40-man roster.

Kurt Ainsworth
Pro: Hey, if we're talking about a replacement for Vogelsong on a day Jerome Williams has a scheduled start, let's think inside the box. He's still involved with baseball, you know. Kind of.

Making bats, breaking bats, same thing! I'm sure he has a few good years left in him.

Con: What a ridiculous suggestion! How dare you!

Okay, guilty. But never forget this simple fact: You can't invent a more ridiculous suggestion than Ryan Vogelsong in the first place. There will never be a fill-in like that again, and it's a shame that it's his injury that's making us look through the replacement options.

Give me Kickham if you're looking for an opinion. Gaudin is kind of a known quantity as a starter, and that known quantity isn't much better than what I'd expect from Kickham. I'm assuming Eric Surkamp can go on the 60-day DL to make room, though the Giants are always a little weird with those moves.