Baseball Nation: All Posts by Jason Brannon

So you're saying there's a chance

2013-05-21T22:56:16Z

According to the soulless automatons who run the internet site coolstandings.com, Miami has about a 0.1 percent chance of making the playoffs. So if you could travel back in time, like Huey Lewis, and play the 2013 major league championship season* a thousand times, the Marlins might get to the wild card game. Who knows, they might even win it! Not too shabby, right?

* That's what MLB wants you to call the regular season, for some reason.

I know that might sound depressing if you're the Marlins fan, but here's the thing to remember: As late as September 4th, 2011, the St. Louis Cardinals had a 1.8 percent chance of making the playoffs, and they won the World Series 54 days later. I remember the day because that's when I first realized God is dead.

Anyway, those odds are probably wrong, is what I'm saying. Stiff upper lip and all that.

The quality start and its discontents

2013-05-20T13:30:05Z

Bruce Miles, mild-mannered Cub reporter, defends the quality start from its detractors:

What's that, you say? Isn't a quality start six innings and three earned runs, for an ERA of 4.50? Sometimes yes, but most of the time, it's a resounding no ... most quality starts are much better than the six-and-three baseline.

[snip]

John [Lowe, inventor of the quality start] rightly points out that a pitcher can pitch poorly and get credit for a victory ... But it's awfully hard, and it rarely happens, that a pitcher pitches poorly and gets credit for a quality start.

Just so. Three days ago, Jeremy Hellickson "won" a game in which he gave up eight runs in seven and two-thirds innings. Here's what Tim McCarver had to say about that:

The term "pitcher wins" drives me nuts ... Who came up with eight runs for seven innings being a win? That means the ERA would be almost 9 ... Pitcher wins. Rubbish.

Just kidding. Here's what he really said:

The term "quality start" drives me nuts ... Who came up with three runs for six innings being a win? That means the ERA would be 4.50 ... Quality starts. Rubbish.

Another prominent critic of quality starts:

Nolan Ryan has used the term "High Quality Start" for games where the pitcher goes seven innings or more and allows three earned runs or less.

If I were a snarky baseball blogger, I'd probably say something like, "We need to differentiate real no-hitters from the ones where the pitcher walks eight batters. Let's call the former 'High Quality No-Hitters' and the latter 'Sorta-No's.'" Luckily for everyone involved, I'm a lot more mature than that.

The quality start is simpler to calculate than pitcher wins and arguably more useful than ERA. What more can one ask of a statistic?

Yer pants too long

2013-05-17T02:45:19Z

If you think about it, almost all the best people have manifestos. [Pause to let you nod in agreement.] Paul Lukas, ESPN's resident uniform authority, has one, too, and it's well worth your time:

Unfortunately, despite all the regulations regarding baseball uniforms (you have to wear a cap, everyone's sleeves have to be roughly the same length, blah-blah-blah), there are no rules regarding baseball pant length. As a result, we now have a sorry mishmash of some players with their cuffs hiked up high, most with their pants down at their shoe tops and a few who can't decide ...

The easiest way to clean up the mess is to impose a simple rule stipulating that pants can go no lower than mid-calf. That will eliminate the footie-pajama look and give us a nice display of colored socks on the diamond.

And why do we want that? Because that's how baseball is supposed to look, that's why.

Lukas is right that the only way to restore pants normalcy is a rule. The NFL has rules like that, and they're not afraid to enforce them. Luckily, Major League Baseball has the kind of young, vigorous leadership that isn't afraid to ~~add a bunch of wild cards~~ fix the game's problems, no matter how small.

Steve Carlton had dominating slider, is kind of a loon

2013-05-15T20:03:31Z

I have a friend who believes basically every conspiracy theory that comes down the pike, even the ones that contradict the other ones. Turns out he has that in common with Steve Carlton:

"The Revolution is definitely coming." He believes in the Revolution, only he isn't precisely sure which of a myriad of conspiratorial groups will begin it. Possibly, he says, it will be started by the Skull and Bones Society of Yale University. Or maybe the International Monetary Fund. Or the World Health Organization. There are so many conspiracies, and so little time. Sometimes all those conspiracies confuse him and he contradicts himself. One minute he'll say, "The Russian and U.S. governments fill the air with low-frequency sound waves meant to control us," and the next he'll say, "The Elders of Zion rule the world," and then, "The British MI-5 and-6 intelligence agencies have ruled the world since 1812," and, "Twelve Jewish bankers meeting in Switzerland rule the world," and, "The world is controlled by a committee of 300 which meets at a roundtable in Rome." The subterfuge starts early. Like the plot by the National Education Association to subvert American children with false teachings. "Don't tell me that two plus two equals four," he once said. "How do you know that two is two?"

Great question. I think you should read the whole thing. But I'm probably in on it, so I would say that, wouldn't I?

20 things I'd do if I were the commissioner

2013-05-14T15:20:27Z

Len Kasper, the Cubs' play-by-play man, recently penned a column about what he would do if he were "commissioner for a day." He has a lot of great ideas, like adding a fifth umpire to each crew (to handle replays), and bringing back the two-for-one doubleheader. Maybe Len's most novel suggestion is giving the home-plate umpire a microphone, so he can announce substitutions and explain the occasional odd ruling, like in the NFL (e.g. "The runner is out on interference."). It's terrific stuff, and I encourage you to read the whole thing.

It got me thinking, What would I do if I were the commissioner? Herein is a partial listing:

1) I'd promise to address the problem of players stepping out of the box constantly, but never actually do anything about it.

2) I'd also do nothing whatsoever to eliminate dangerous home-plate collisions. "Man up, Posey" seems like pretty sensible advice to me.

3) I'd bully local and state governments into buying ballparks for millionaire owners, to the tune of ~$10 billion over twenty years. I know that seems like a staggering amount of money, but here's the thing: It is.

4) Speaking of the owners, I would only let undercapitalized yes-men own teams in the first place. Believe you me, this couldn't possibly go wrong.

5) Every few years or so, I'd appoint a commission to fix this or that problem. I would always and only refer to it as a "blue ribbon" commission, because everyone knows that's the best kind.

6) Under the theory that people love the sound of my voice, I would interrupt regular season and All-Star games to make a speech on the field, with weepy movie music playing in the background.

7) I'd limit teams from spending a lot of money on the draft, because I have a feeling my best friend will be a notorious cheapskate owner.

8) I'd institute "interleague play." It won't really work that well, but I'll cite attendance figures of "interleague" games to prove its success. But, and this is key, I would NOT mention that these "interleague" games were concentrated on weekends, in good weather, and after the kids are out of school. I would do this for years and years.

9) If my owner pals and I ever got in trouble for colluding against the players, I'd just add a couple of teams. Let the new owners pay the penalty. If it's still not enough, we can just do it again in five years.

10) I would ruin the All-Star game (with an assist from a longtime manager, who will treat it like a tee ball game).

11) I would hire someone to work day and night to keep baseball highlights off the web. Because between you and me, I'm pretty sure this ultranet thing is just a fad.

12) I'd make the very act of watching your favorite team a mind-numbing, Sisyphean ordeal, because baseball fans are chumps who will put up with basically anything.

13) If there were some kind of territorial dispute between two neighboring teams, and an easy solution wasn't apparent, I'd leave the long-suffering, cash-strapped team in limbo until my retirement or death.

14) Speaking of retirement, every few years I'll tell everyone I'm going to retire but never actually do it, just to screw with people. In reality, I'll probably haunt the game until I die.

15) I would lead the faction that ousts my predecessor, then head the committee to hire his replacement. After a long, drawn-out "search," I'll appoint myself Interim Commissioner For Life.

16) I would probably just make up the vote totals for the All-Star Game.* It's not like we have election monitors or anything.

* Prove me wrong, kids!

17) I hate baseball players, so if confidential PED tests were leaked, that'd be aces with me.

18) I would fire any arbitrator who dared rule against the league in a dispute with a player, and I would immediately wage a vendetta against any player who prevailed against us in any kind of hearing or appeal.

19) My guiding principle would always be There's nothing wrong with the game that can't be fixed by adding more wild cards.

20) I would cancel the goddamn World Series. Because I'm a human garbage monster.

What would you do if you were the commissioner? Let us know in the comments!

Another rule change we should definitely do but probably won't

2013-05-10T13:00:05Z

From the "Hey Bill" page at Bill James Online:

Hey Bill, I've long thought this would be a fun if crazy way to play baseball: No fixed lineup; every turn through the "order" the manager is free to send hitters out in any sequence he wishes, so long as all nine players bat before any one player gets an additional turn ...
Asked by: PB

Bill James: It would be fun. I'd like to try it. It would have to result in SOME increase in runs scored. Your big hitter would probably bat 75% of the time with runners on base, which would mean that a hitter having a Miguel Cabrera-type season could drive in 220 runs. You'd be adding a lot of strategy, which would lead to a lot of interesting post-game talk.

As I see it, there are two groups of people who would be against such a rule:

1) People who think baseball achieved a kind of recondite perfection when the World Series was introduced in 1903.

2) Professional baseball managers. If anything, managers today would prefer that teams be required to order their hitters by age or height. Whatever, just so long as I don't have to think or answer any difficult questions after the game. You know, like we did with the bullpens. "What are you gonna do? He's my eighth-inning guy."

Anyway, this goes on the list of things we propose to the next commissioner when Selig finally reti--HA HA HA HA HA HA HA!! Not happening, people. This Bud's forever.

Other than the stadium collapsing, Mrs. Busch, how was the game?

2013-05-07T18:26:01Z

A fun (by which I mean slightly horrifying) tidbit from a recent Will Leitch podcast:

Leitch: I was actually down the field [of Busch Stadium] a couple years ago ... It was 2007, so the stadium was fairly new, and I was talking to an usher down there, who'd worked at the old Busch for like 30 years, and we were still kind of adjusting to the new park at that point. I'm like, "So what do you think of the place?" He's like, "Oh, this place is going to collapse someday." I was like, "Wait, wait, what was that?" [laughs] He said, "Oh yeah, they spared every expense because they had to pay for it themselves." And I was like, "Oh, well that's good to know. That's good to know."

Joe Sheehan: And you start to look around, every time you take a step you're like, "Is the concrete going to --"

Leitch: Oh, yeah. Every time it gets really loud now, I start looking up.

... in the hope that ours is a merciful God, no doubt.

FADE IN, INT. KITCHEN:

I'm a mom. [Puts grocery bag on the counter.] My kids are important to me. I don't want them to wind up at the bottom of a pile of rubble in some shoddily built, self-financed stadium. That's why I'm voting "Yes" on Prop. 37, to impose a quarter-cent sales tax increase to fund a new downtown ballpark ...

O, Baseball! O, Spring!

2013-05-06T14:30:15Z

Adapted from D.H. Lawrence and Late Night with David Letterman.