#Hot Corner

The Lucky Ones

USA TODAY Sports

A little while ago we looked at pitchers whose ERAs were significantly worse than their Expected Fielding Independent Pitching (xFIP) in 2013. Here's the converse list, the pitchers whose ERAs were tinged with a bit of luck.

These aren't bad pitchers. In fact, several of the league's best starters and young stars appear on the list. That's not quite what we're looking for -- pitchers with great ERAs who perhaps only deserved very good ERAs. What we're really interested in are the Joe Kellys and Bruce Chens and Alexi Ogandos of the world, pitchers who superficially looked good in 2013 but should be considered risky buys in next year's fantasy drafts.

Name Team W L IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BABIP ERA xFIP ERA/xFIP
Clay Buchholz Red Sox 12 1 108.1 8.0 3.0 0.3 .254 1.74 3.41 .51
Clayton Kershaw Dodgers 16 9 236.0 8.9 2.0 0.4 .251 1.83 2.88 .64
Joe Kelly Cardinals 10 5 124.0 5.7 3.2 0.7 .289 2.69 4.19 .64
Bruce Chen Royals 9 4 121.0 5.8 2.7 1.0 .255 3.27 4.93 .66
Alexi Ogando Rangers 7 4 104.1 6.2 3.5 1.0 .254 3.11 4.64 .67
Bartolo Colon Athletics 18 6 190.1 5.5 1.4 0.7 .294 2.65 3.95 .67
Travis Wood Cubs 9 12 200.0 6.5 3.0 0.8 .248 3.11 4.50 .69
Jose Fernandez Marlins 12 6 172.2 9.8 3.0 0.5 .240 2.19 3.08 .71
Jered Weaver Angels 11 8 154.1 6.8 2.2 1.0 .268 3.27 4.31 .76
Matt Moore Rays 17 4 150.1 8.6 4.6 0.8 .259 3.29 4.32 .76
Zack Greinke Dodgers 15 4 177.2 7.5 2.3 0.7 .276 2.63 3.45 .76
Hector Santiago White Sox 4 9 149.0 8.3 4.4 1.0 .289 3.56 4.65 .77
Tyler Chatwood Rockies 8 5 111.1 5.3 3.3 0.4 .314 3.15 4.00 .79
Jacob Turner Marlins 3 8 118.0 5.9 4.1 0.8 .285 3.74 4.71 .79
Hisashi Iwakuma Mariners 14 6 219.2 7.6 1.7 1.0 .252 2.66 3.28 .81
Zack Wheeler Mets 7 5 100.0 7.6 4.1 0.9 .279 3.42 4.21 .81
Nathan Eovaldi Marlins 4 6 106.1 6.6 3.4 0.6 .286 3.39 4.15 .82
Shelby Miller Cardinals 15 9 173.1 8.8 3.0 1.0 .280 3.06 3.73 .82
Chris Archer Rays 9 7 128.2 7.1 2.7 1.1 .253 3.22 3.91 .82
Zach McAllister Indians 9 9 134.1 6.8 3.3 0.9 .295 3.75 4.53 .83
Kyle Lohse Brewers 11 10 198.2 5.7 1.6 1.2 .276 3.35 4.03 .83
Madison Bumgarner Giants 13 9 201.1 8.9 2.8 0.7 .251 2.77 3.32 .83

(Minimum 15 starts.)

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