Baseball Nation - Mariano Rivera Probably Done For 2012

Mariano Rivera might retire after all

2012-10-25T20:33:56Z

After the horrifying injury to Mariano Rivera's ACL during batting practice last May in Kansas City, everyone in baseball assumed Rivera would rehab and come back in 2013; Rivera even said several times he didn't want to end his career that way.

Thursday, ESPN New York reported Rivera might be considering retirement anyway:

Now, with his 43rd birthday next month and having worked very hard during his rehab to return, Rivera has the familiar tug that he has carried for many years of possibly wanting to stay home with his family and call it a career. Rivera has yet to inform the Yankees of his final intentions, according to sources.

The article indicates some of the considerations, including Rivera's desire to go out as an elite player and what sort of contract the Yankees would offer him; he earned $15 million in 2012. Manager Joe Girardi didn't sound certain of Rivera's status, either:

"From watching how he rehabbed and everything that he was going through, picked up a baseball sooner than he was supposed to and got his hand smacked a little bit, that would tell me that Mo probably wants to play," Girardi said. "But in saying that, it's a decision that I think he'll sit down with his family, evaluate where he is maybe a little bit later in this process and how he feels and how his arm feels to feel like you think you can compete at the same level he's always competed at. But I don't think that you push a rehab like he pushed it unless you think that you possibly have some interest in coming back."

As always, we await developments. For more, please visit Pinstriped Bible and SB Nation New York.

Mariano Rivera Hoping For 2012 Return

2012-07-16T23:59:10Z

When Yankees closer Mariano Rivera tore his ACL shagging fly balls in the outfield, it was assumed that he was done for the rest of the 2012 season. The Yankees still maintain that they don't expect to see Rivera until 2013, now that he's vowed to come back. Rivera, though, isn't closing the door on a return this September, because as long as the possibility exists, it can't be impossible. Bryan Hoch:

Rivera spoke optimistically about a September return in an interview on Monday with ESPN Radio’s Michael Kay, addressing a published report that suggested his torn right ACL might not be a season-ending injury after all.

“That’s my goal,” Rivera said. “Definitely, that’s my goal. I’m not thinking about it because if it doesn’t happen, I will be disappointed. So I’m taking it day by day. I’m working hard and doing what I’m supposed to do. I don’t want to put something in my mind."

There's nothing conclusive, and we just don't know how soon Rivera might be ready. He's left the door open for an early return but he hasn't exactly issued a guarantee. What we know is that Rivera's thus far recovered well, and faster than doctors expected. But his recovery isn't complete, so the most we can say is "we'll see." How satisfying!

Mariano Rivera Has Slim Chance Of Playing In 2012

2012-07-10T18:48:05Z

When Mariano Rivera tore his ACL shagging fly balls, it was nothing short of devastating, for Rivera, the Yankees, and the entire baseball universe.Thankfully, Rivera vowed to make a comeback, refusing to retire after an injury, but he was ruled out for the remainder of 2012.

About that...

Yankees general manager Brian Cashman said yesterday "in terms of 2012, he's out."

Makes sense, exactly what we figured. But:

[Dr. Keith Pyne] added, that Rivera "will be in the best position to accomplish that goal [pitching this year]. He's got everything it takes to accomplish that. ... If I was putting money on it, I would put my money on Mo."

I mean, it's not impossible that Rivera could return this season. He's extraordinarily disciplined, and it turns out he had a partial ACL tear, instead of a complete one. The Yankees aren't going to count on anything and their plan needs to be going forward as if Rivera will remain unavailable, but there's the possibility of a miracle. Maybe it wouldn't even be a miracle.

Rivera injured himself before a game on May 3. At that point, the Yankees were 13-11. Since then they've gone 39-22, which has been good for the best record in baseball. Rafael Soriano has been extremely effective in racking up 20 saves. Rivera's healthy presence, obviously, would be a good thing for the Yankees, but it's clear that his absence hasn't left the team crippled.

Mariano Rivera Has Surgery, Torn ACL Repaired

2012-06-12T20:31:34Z

The freakish knee injury that ended New York Yankees closer Mariano Rivera’s season happened on May 3 in Kansas City.

That’s 40 days ago. He was unable to have surgery to repair his torn ACL due to blood clot issues. That is, until now:

Mariano Rivera’s surgery went well, they repaired the torn ACL.

— Daniel Barbarisi (@DanBarbarisi) June 12, 2012

Rivera is, of course, 42 years old and rehabbing an injury of this nature is a rough thing for a younger man. However, Rivera has shown determination throughout his major league career. He went on record almost immediately after the injury as saying he’d come back, that he didn’t want his career to end that way.

It won’t be an easy task, but if anyone can do it, Rivera can do it. I’d fully expect to see him in uniform for the Yankees on Opening Day 2013.

For more on the Yankees, please visit Pinstripe Alley and SB Nation New York.

Still No Knee Surgery Date For Mariano Rivera

2012-06-01T13:17:44Z

While the Yankees’ bullpen situation has stabilized — for now — with Rafael Soriano installed as closer, Mariano Rivera still awaits the knee surgery that will allow him to return in 2013. Mark Feinsand:

Rivera, who made an appearance Thursday at a charity dinner at Sofrito on the East Side for Carlos Beltran’s baseball academy in Puerto Rico, still doesn’t have a time frame for surgery on his knee.

“I’m good. I’m feeling good,” said Rivera, who walked with a slight limp. “We’re thinking about (the timetable).”

Asked if he misses the game, Rivera said: “I miss it a lot. It is (killing me).”

Rivera, who will turn 43 in November, still hopes to return to the game so he can go out on his own terms, rather than via the gruesome knee injury he suffered in Kansas City. Even if you’re not a Yankees fan, you have to be rooting for him to make it back.

For more on the Yankees, please visit Pinstripe Alley and SB Nation New York.

Nitkowski: The Mariano Rivera Effect

2012-05-10T21:05:22Z

After news broke that Mariano Rivera had destroyed his ACL, there were two things to talk about: (1) what it would mean for Mariano Rivera, and (2) what it would mean for the New York Yankees. Not only did one have to wonder about the rest of Rivera's career; one had to wonder how much damage the injury would deal to the Yankees' overall true-talent. How many wins would the Yankees lose by losing Mariano Rivera for five months? (of the regular season)

If you're familiar with the Wins Above Replacement statistic, you'd know that it says Rivera is worth about 2-3 wins above replacement each season. So that would be an estimate of Rivera's value. But ex-pitcher C.J. Nitkowski is active in Internet circles, and he's pretty well versed on cutting-edge statistics, and he doesn't think that value estimate is high enough. An excerpt from Nitkowski's blog post:

Here is what I think was so badly missed. The trickledown effect on the loss of Mariano Rivera is unquantifiable. I know you in the community hate that word, just like you hate "team chemistry", "gutsy player" and "intangibles." The reality is that you cannot say with any certainty how many games this injury will cost the Yankees, but I can say it will be more than 2.

That does not mean David Robertson himself will cost the Yankees 2 more wins than Mariano would have. It means you've lost a Hall of Fame arm in your bullpen. Robertson moves up, Soriano moves up, Boone Logan moves up, Corey Wade moves up, etc.

Your middle relief is now weaker, your setup corps has changed, or can't pitch as much in middle relief because someone has to take on Robertson's and Soriano's innings, which were so valuable.

That's just one chunk of it, and you should read the whole thing. Nitkowski concludes:

This is just one example of how it works, there are a million other scenarios. Robertson vs. Rivera, sure there is some loss but maybe not as much as the casual fan thinks. Losing Rivera is a bigger blow to the bullpen as a whole, both mentally (sorry, it's true) and physically.

From the statistical perspective, we get something of a counter from the inimitable Tangotiger:

So, it’s not a question of how good Mo is. He’s #1, and with a bullet. The question is how much value can such a player have in the role that’s available to him. And my answer is 2.5-3 wins a year.

And that also happens to be the official position of the Yankees and Rivera himself, since he’s being paid at 15 million dollars a year, and wins are going for 5 to 6 million dollars each. And 15/5 and 15/6 gives us 2.5-3 wins a year.

Tangotiger has reached out to Nitkowski, trying to see if they can have a discussion. If the do end up having a discussion, it'll presumably be public, and if they have a public discussion, we'll write about it here. Reliever value is one area where a lot of people disagree, so when you're dealing with a reliever like Mariano Rivera - only the greatest reliever in the history of the game - you're going to get a wide variety of opinions on what a major injury's going to mean.

So Far, Yankees' Plan B Isn't Looking Real Good

2012-05-10T12:01:00Z

They say it's different.

They say pitching the ninth inning is different than pitching the eighth inning.

Today, David Robertson might agree.

Before Mariano Rivera's season ended last Thursday night, Robertson hadn't pitched in a save situation all season. His next outing came a few nights later, but it wasn't a save situation. He entered in the ninth inning, but the Yankees were up 6-2 against the Royals; Robertson struck out all three batters he faced.

Robertson didn't pitch the ninth inning in a save situation last year, either. Last year, Robertson was the Yankees' eighth-inning guy, and performed brilliant. If you combine his 2011 and his 2012 before his first save situation -- we'll get to that moment in a moment -- Robertson pitched as well as any relief pitcher in the major leagues.

In 78⅔ innings, Robertson gave up 47 hits and allowed eight runs. He struck out 121 batters, and his ERA was ... well, his ERA was simply ridiculous: 0.92.

As you might imagine, no pitcher with as many innings as Robertson sported an ERA so low; in fact, no pitcher with at least 50 innings since Opening Day in 2011 has an ERA that begins with a zero. David Robertson was on a planet of his own.

As an eighth-inning setup man.

As a closer? Not so much.

Tuesday night, Robertson got his first shot as the Yankees' closer. And he did convert the save opportunity, but not before giving up a hit and a couple of walks to load the bases, finally escaping by striking out the dangerous Carlos Pena.

Wednesday night, there would be no escape. Asked to protect a 1-0 lead, Robertson gave up consecutive first-pitch singles, a walk, and then a game-tying sacrifice fly before Matt Joyce unloaded a three-run homer to blow things open. That was the most shocking thing, as Robertson had given up just one home run in his previous 98 appearances.

Is it a coincidence, then? That after a season-plus with a 0.92 ERA, Robertson would suddenly give up four hits and three walks in his first two outings as the Yankees' designated closer?

Ask me again in a few weeks. Maybe the ninth inning is different. But it's not like the eighth inning doesn't have its pressures, too. Or maybe it's not the ninth inning, per se. Maybe it's the pressure of replacing a legend. Maybe that's a pressure to which one can be accustomed. To which David Robertson can be come accustomed, anyway.

Ask him again in a few weeks.

Mariano Rivera 'Complications' Were A Blood Clot

2012-05-09T20:35:06Z

It was devastating when we all learned that Mariano Rivera had sustained a torn ACL shagging fly balls during batting practice. It made us feel better when Rivera declared that he would be back, but still, we've got now through October to watch baseball without Mariano Rivera. It's going to be weird.

After we learned of the extent of Rivera's injuries, we also learned that he'd run into "complications". Unspecified complications, which can make for worrisome complications. Nobody would say what was up, but now we know:

Mariano's issue was a blood clot in his leg. Calf area.
— Kevin Kernan (@NYPost_Kernan) May 9, 2012

I believe it is taken care of already he said of the clot
— Kevin Kernan (@NYPost_Kernan) May 9, 2012

So Mariano Rivera had a blood clot in his leg. Or he still has a blood clot in his leg. But it's getting treated, and it won't set him back. It's a complication, but it's a minor one, which is good news for everyone involved. I mean, it's not good news that Mariano Rivera had a blood clot, but it's good news that the blood clot can be easily dealt with.